Episode 714 | TRM not TAM, Acquiring a Competitor, and Finding a Developer Co-founder (A Rob Solo Adventure)

Rob Walling:
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Have you ever looked at a schedule, say, of a recurring publication? Maybe it’s a launch deadline, a date that you have to submit a manuscript by or push your code to production, launch anything and realized, “I thought that was next week.” That’s actually tomorrow. Well, that’s the situation I found myself in late yesterday when I realized that I thought I recorded an extra week of Startups For the Rest of Us, but it turns out I owe an episode to my editor this week. 

I’m Rob Walling, the host of Startups For the Rest of Us, and this episode is being recorded with a handheld microphone. It’s the same microphone I use at home, but I threw it in my suitcase and hoped that it would work when plugged into my iPad, which is usually what I travel with. And I’m currently recording from a hotel room in San Diego, California at the TinySeed batch 14 kickoff. This is our kickoff for our America’s batch and things get started in just a few hours, but the show must go on. I ship an episode of Startups For the Rest of Us 52 weeks a year and have since 2010. 

Before we dive into the episode, I wanted to let you know that our MicroConf Mastermind program is open for applications. I’ve talked a lot on this podcast about how important masterminds have been to my entrepreneurial success. But finding the right founders to join up with can be hard. Over the past few years, our team has successfully hand matched over 1000 founders into mastermind groups by looking at your revenue, team size, strengths, goals, and a few other data points to make sure your peer group is the right fit. Once matched, you’ll also have access to our mentorship series, a three-month program where you can connect with some great minds in sales, business development, marketing, and more. If you’ve looking for accountability, honest feedback about your business, and the opportunity to make new friends that care about your success, you can learn more and apply today at microconfmasterminds.com. Applications are only open until June 12th, so make sure you sign up before then. Again that’s microconfmasterminds.com.

Today, I’m going to answer a few listener questions. I may get into a couple solo topics that I’ve been thinking about as well. My first question is from a listener who asked to remain anonymous, and the question to paraphrase was, “I’m thinking about acquiring a competitor. What should I expect and how should I transition the customers?” My first question was how many customers are there and how much revenue is there? Because the thing with acquisitions is there is a cognitive load. There is a legal load. There is a transitional load. There is an adoption and absorption load. There’s a lot of work into getting it done. So if you’re going to acquire a competitor doing a couple of thousand dollars a month, I’d really question if it’s worth it. Even if let’s say it was free and their competitor is going to shut down, and they literally were to say, “I’m just going to give you all the assets of this business,” I would still have to think about it. 

Now, it might be worth it. I would evaluate how many customers, where am I at, this and that, but the opportunity cost or the time investment to learn their systems, to talk to their customers, to transition them, that alone is a big deal. This is why you’ll sometimes see really large companies, they need to make big acquisitions in order for it to make a difference for them. And this is why you see really large companies, when they acquire really small companies, they just shut them down. They’re acquiring them for the talent, for the people, for the developers, for the product people, for the marketers, for the team itself. And trying to merge that tech into their business, it just isn’t worth it. You have to buy something at a massive scale when you are at massive scale. So that’s the first thing that I’d be asking myself in an acquisition like this. Is it even worth doing? 

Let’s say for the sake of argument that you are doing millions a year as a SaaS entrepreneur and you find someone who is doing low to mid six figures a year and they are willing to sell to you at a price that makes sense. Maybe it’s an all cash deal. Maybe there’s a seller note that you pay off over time. Maybe you pay them in some equity from your company. There are all types of creative ways to structure this, but let’s say it makes sense. There’s two questions this listener asks, what to expect and how to transition the customers. What to expect is that it’s going to be a ton of work and that you’re going to want the support of the seller to try to transition those customers. 

I’m assuming it’s implied in the question that you are not just going to run two separate applications, that your competitor has their own code base, their own app, their own interface, their own login, their own billing, and you have yours. So the first question is do you want to combine those or do you want to become a two-product company? Imagine if you acquired a competitor that did most of the same things that you do and you just ran both products. That would be quite a mess actually. There’d be a lot of effort managing its marketing, its sales, its support. You duplicate. You have all this duplicated effort. 

So at that point, I’d be thinking about, okay, how do I transition their customers into our product? I would really be looking for a recommendation from the seller on how to do that. I mean, I have my own ideas. Of course, you communicate with the existing customers and you say, “This product has been acquired and we have most of the same functionality. We’d like to migrate you over.” Now, as I’m saying this, I’m realizing that if you’re going to do a deal like this, you may want to make, if possible, parts of the sale price, part of the multiple in essence, contingent on how many folks migrate over, what percentage of customers. Because could we think of a range that’s 30% up to 80%? 

It’s a wide range, but there’s probably a bell curve of this of the most common percentages that will literally sign up for a new app, create a new login, get their team onboarded if they have multi-seat accounts. There’s all types of things to think about. Can I see it being low as a third of your customers, meaning that you lose two-third of the acquirer’s customers? Possibly. And can I see it being as high as, like I said, 70, 80% where you only lose 20%? Maybe. I mean, that feels very high, but it’s a pretty wide berth there. So that’s an interesting thought is there’s a pretty big range, and should you bank on it being 50% right in the middle? I don’t know. You could certainly run numbers at different, your best, worst, and in-between case to see what it might wind up. 

The other thing you could do is ask people to migrate, and even if they don’t, you keep the acquired app running. You don’t shut it down, but you don’t market it. You basically shut down signups, and the public marketing site, all that would redirect over to your application, the one that you have in the millions of ARR, and you just kind of let the revenue, the MRR of the old one, just churn out over time. Even with pretty low churn, you will get down to the point of only having that customer base be 20, 30, 40% of its original size within a couple of years. So that’s another way to think about it. Is it like a melting ice cube and you’re just trying to keep it from melting? You’re trying to take the revenue from those who don’t want to switch and you’re trying to take the customers who do want to switch and get them onboarded on your new application. 

But you can see, it’s pretty technical. It’s pretty complicated. It depends a lot on the apps, right? Let’s say it’s something relatively simple. I’ll put this in quotes, “simple,” and maybe not simple but an app that has low switching costs is probably a better way to think about it. Let’s think of an app like a scheduling link. Even if you have integrations set up, it’s not a ton of work, relatively speaking, to move from one scheduling app to another versus moving your CRM, if you have a team of five or 10 salespeople and you have all this data or moving marketing automation or email marketing platforms. Ton of work. You have workflows. You have subscribers. You have all that stuff. So there’s a bit of it depends in here, but I think what to expect is it’s going to be more work than you think, so make sure that it’s worth it. Make sure that it’s worth the effort, not only the money. Depending on the purchase price, the money can be secondary to the time and the opportunity costs that you have to invest in order to make a successful transition. 

My next question is about startups that require HIPAA and other compliance. This is from August of last year, so what are we looking at? Maybe nine months? That gives you an idea of how far back we are on text questions. Question comes from Paul Frieden and Paul asks, “Hey, rob, I’ve been watching your YouTube videos for a while. Thanks for the great content. I’ve been working on an idea and I have what I think is a pretty solid MVP. Unfortunately, the idea probably requires HIPAA compliance to sell to many or most of the potential customers. I’m afraid to even start trying to get customers on the MVP without compliance. Even getting an answer on if I can sell and to whom would require expensive legal advice. Any tips? I’m a solo developer, no business entity and totally pre-revenue.” 

I was on board with this question until that last sentence. Even getting an answer on if I can sell and to whom would require expensive legal advice, it’s an interesting phrasing. Is expensive a thousand dollars or $10,000 and do you have a thousand or $10,000? That’s really the question. I guess without knowing it, I have a tough time if I can sell. I have to talk to a lawyer before I know if I can sell this SaaS is just a puzzling statement to me, so I’m not sure that I can comment on that, other than how much is it going to cost and do you have that money because if you don’t, this is all a moot point. 

Now, to whom you can sell, I think is an interesting question for a lawyer. But really, the thing is if you think it needs a HIPAA, it probably requires HIPAA, then get it HIPAA-compliant. HIPAA compliance is not out of the realm of bootstrappers. Now, if you want SOC 2 compliance, that becomes pretty pricey pretty quick. HIPAA compliance is different. Of course, this is not legal nor HIPAA advice that I’m giving you, but I have known many bootstrappers, even folks who were on tight budgets who read the HIPAA guidelines and became compliant. It is something that one can do. So if I were to build an MVP and then be HIPAA-compliant, you can do it. Right? It’s possible. The thing to think about is if you’re HIPAA-compliant, you need to charge a lot of money for this. 

I’ve seen SaaS startups that are charging… Let’s make up some numbers. $20 for the cheapest plan, then a 50 and then a hundred dollar plan. And then the HIPAA-compliant plan is $500 a month or a thousand dollars a month. It means it’s that much more. Those are the price points minimum that I’d be thinking about. And frankly, if you’re going to be doing cold outreach, let’s talk a minimum of a thousand dollars a month or $2,000 a month. These are the numbers that I would be thinking about to make it worth it. The big question I have is not can I get HIPAA-compliant? The big question I have is, does anyone need this? Can I solve a problem people are willing to pay for and can I reach them at a scale and will they pay the price that I’m asking to make it worth my while? 

For more information on becoming HIPAA-compliant, sign up for MicroConf Connect. I’m sure there’s a compliance channel or there’s got to be a channel that focuses on something like this and just ask, who here is HIPAA-compliant and what process did you use? What documents did you use? Did you just Google Search? There are ways to find this. I mean, I would go to Google or ChatGPT. Even though ChatGPT hallucinates things, I would not use it as the final arbiter, but I would use it as a guideline to get me started to understand what I might need in place to accomplish this. Thanks for your question, Paul. I hope that was helpful. 

My next topic is not a question, but it’s something that I started thinking about when I heard someone else on a podcast talking about TAM, total addressable market. This is a term that venture capitalists throw around and they are concerned about having billion or decabillion dollar total addressable markets, meaning the entire market of what everyone is spending on the software in this category is billions or tens of billions. This is dangerous for bootstrappers to think about. I’m going to use a phrase and I want you to hear me, bottom up versus top down. TAM, total addressable market, is top down. It’s coming from the MBA at Harvard saying, “Well, we could capture 30, 50, 80% of an entire market, and then it’s worth decabillion dollars. That’s top down. When you are bootstrapping or mostly bootstrapping, I think in terms of bottom up, so I call that term, total reachable market, TRM. 

The reason I call it bottom up is you’re not looking at a huge survey from Gartner and doing math where you’re kind of just guessing the worldwide value of GDP of some small country. You are saying what is the search volume for this term each month, the total search volume? What do I think that I can reach if I owned most of the Google searches for these terms, realizing that you won’t own most of them from the start. But if I own most of the Google searches, if I rank number one in Capterra and G2, if I owned, so to speak, all of the answers on Quora or Stack Overflow or Reddit or wherever this is being talked about, what would the reachable market be assuming that I am going to be doing online marketing? If you’re going to be doing offline marketing, we have to get a little hand-wavy. Offline meaning are you going to in-person events? I don’t mean buying billboards and radio ads, but that’s what I would be thinking about. 

When I go through all the marketing purchase in The SaaS Playbook, I would be asking myself which one, two, or three of these do I think will work best or will I start with and what’s my guess? What’s my estimate of how many people are in these channels? Let’s say, I can own a chunk 40, 50% of each of these two or three channels over the next six months, what is the TRM of that? What is the reachable market that I can feasibly reach as a bootstrapped or mostly bootstrapped software company? It’s hand-wavy and it’s guesstimaty, but it’s something. It’s not TAM. TAM does you no good. I was actually asked this. 

I’m remembering now where this came from. I was asked this on a podcast and I was answering it and they were saying, how do you look at TAM of TinySeed companies? And I said, “We kind of do, but we kind of don’t because look, if a TinySeed company can get to $5 million ARR and they can sell for $30 million or $50 million, that’s a great win for us and it’s a home run for that founder. It’s life-changing.” So how big does the TAM have to be to get to 5 million in ARR? I mean, you could feasibly have a $10 million market and if you get to half of it, you’re $5 million, and with a $50 million market, you only need 10% of the entire market. So that’s where TAM just doesn’t translate to bootstrappers in the way that you might think. It’s not that it doesn’t impact it at all, but I feel like it’s an unhelpful number. It’s an unhelpful way to think about it. 

In addition to the ways I just talked about with the bottom up of trying to guesstimate how many people might be seeing different things, the other way to think about it is in terms of your category of the tool that you are building. So if you’re building scheduling links or email service provider or electronic signature app, what do you think is the switching volume and the new entrants that are coming into the space for this type of tool in a given month? The switching volume would be those switching from competitors and the new entrants would be people brand new. They need e-signature. It’s like, “Oh, it’s a brand new realtor just getting set up. It’s a brand new whatever, a psychologist or a new startup, and they need electronic signature,” versus how many people are switching away? What is the churn, if you think about it, from a bunch of your competitors? Right? 

Again, if they’re public competitors, you can take guesses at this. If they’re not, you can still take guesses at it. But I asked this from the MicroConf stage. I was giving an example of a very small market that TinySeed invested in, where there are a total of about 1500 total customers in the US, which is where this company focuses. And I asked the audience, I said, “How many people in a given month do you think are switching from an old existing tool or maybe our new entrants in the space?” And the funny part was the founder of that company was in the room and he held up three fingers. He said three. Approximately, he was giving me about the right number. Now, is it exactly three every month? Of course not, but you get the idea. In a market that small, it is literally a handful of people that are in that most aware category that are ready to buy. 

If we turn to let’s say email marketing software, could it be 3000 or 30,000? I don’t know, 30,000 feels high to me, but could it be 3000 or 5,000 in a given month? Sure. That are kind of poking around? 10,000? There’s some number. It’s not a million. There are not a million people or businesses in a given month that are looking for a new email service provider, either from switching or from starting a new company. Right? We won’t get within 10%, but we can get within a hundred percent. We can get within an order of magnitude of these things. 

That’s what I’m talking about with TRM is it’s this total reachable market. Just how many people in general are switching? And then let’s think about how we can get in front of them and that can give us an idea as founders and as marketers and as folks who are trying to add customers, it gives us some type of sanity check so that we’re not expecting, “Oh, I’m going to get a thousand new customers a month,” when there’s probably, in a lot of markets, only hundreds who are really ready to buy and switching from other tools in any given month. So TRM, not TAM folks. Should I get a shirt that says that? No, that would be a terrible idea. No one would get it, and even if you got it, you’d be like, “This is dumb.” So TRM not TAM, I will say it, but no T-shirts, please. 

My next question is from an anonymous asker who says, “Hey, Rob, I have the product idea and I know the market, but I’m not a developer. I came across your podcast and I’m really learning a lot, even though I only have a vague understanding of what you’re talking about at times. I see the opportunity to disrupt a multi-billion dollar industry. Where should I look for a developer who can help bring my product to life?” I have a couple thoughts here. I think if you’re looking for a developer to work just for equity, don’t do that. It just rarely, rarely works because developers have built up a skill set that allows them to charge a lot of money per hour, and having an idea and knowing the market isn’t enough. It’s just not that valuable. As weird as that says, the idea plus knowing the market is not that valuable. 

Now, if you have concrete marketing skills and sales skills and you know directly how to reach the market and you have 10 people lined up to consume the software, to buy the software, to try the MVP that you’re going to have built, that’s something. Still not a business, but at least it’s something. It’s some type of validation. If you have an email list with 500 or a thousand people who are super interested in this and you’ve been marketing and pounding the pavement and talking about this idea and the value prop, that’s something. It’s a lot more than having an idea and knowing a market. A lot of people have an idea and know a market. 

On the flip side though, if you are looking to pay a developer, this is a challenge actually because I can tell you to go to Lemon.io or DevSquad. These are sponsors of this podcast and they have developers that you can hire. The thing is most developers don’t know how to build products. They know how to write code, and much like if you were to go to build a house and all you hired was a carpenter, you’re not going to get a very good house because really, you need an electrician and you need an architect and you need a carpenter and you need someone to… There’s HVAC. There’s all these different trades that go together and collaborate to build a house. With a software product like SaaS, as complicated and as many moving parts as there are, in most cases, you need multiple people involved. 

It is very rare and we call them full-stack developers. I’ve also heard them called unicorns frequently because they kind of don’t exist. Of course, they exist. I’ve worked with them. Derrick Reimer is a full-stack developer, can build it soup to nuts, top to bottom, but you’re not going to be able to hire Derrick Reimer. That’s the thing. You’re not going to find it. Derrick Reimer is not on the open market. He has his own company. And back in the day when he was young and thinking about starting up, he was working with me and I brought him in as a co-founder of Drip. That’s the level of person that a full-stack developer… That’s what they can command. 

So it’s that thing of if you go to Lemon.io or DevSquad or Trustshoring or anyone where you go to hire developers, just getting a developer, they can write code. They can build screens. They can build web pages that do things. But who’s going to tell them how to build it? Because you can say, “I want to solve this particular problem,” but there’s a translation layer there in terms of the UX, the design, the product, how it functions, how it can be intuitive, and how the flow should work. What’s the onboarding like? What’s the login like? There’s all this stuff that is not taught in college when you get a CS degree, or if you read a book about programming, this stuff is not taught. Not only that, but it is just very hard to build a SaaS without a technical co-founder. 

I know that I have some quote, unquote, “rules or rules of thumb,” on this show where I talk about don’t do B2C, don’t do two-sided marketplaces, and I’m pretty serious about those. 98% of the time, you shouldn’t, 99%, almost a hundred percent. This thing I’m about to say is not in that camp. It’s not a 99%, but maybe it’s an 80% don’t do is don’t start a SaaS without a technical co-founder. The reason that I say that is most of the companies that I see, the bootstrapped and mostly bootstrapped companies, I’m specifically talking about bootstrapped and mostly bootstrapped. If you raised $5 million, you can totally hire a CTO level person or a director of product and engineering who can write code, hire people. You can build a staff out. 

But if you are the bootstrapped and mostly bootstrapped like I’m guessing you are if you listen to this podcast, the vast majority of folks I see trying to do this without a technical co-founder really struggle. The vast majority, I would say it’s 80 or 90%, struggle with the tech side, and their biggest headache the whole time is that they’re able to market and sell, and the product doesn’t keep up. The product doesn’t scale. They need to rewrite their code base every… I know of a technical co-founder who rewrote their code base three times. I know of others who’ve rewritten them twice. It’s just the constant struggle of that. This is across TinySeed, MicroConf, and just everybody I know who does it. I believe across TinySeed, the percentage of companies that we have funded that do not have a technical co-founder are… I think it’s around 15%. I know it’s between 10 and 20, but I think 15 is about where it stands. 

Again, I’m not saying don’t do it because that’s a pretty big number, and if we’re funding them at TinySeed, then they are obviously having some traction. But I will say several of the folks that we have funded there, they do definitely struggle with just the engineering side of things and the product and the scaling, and it sucks to not have a founder level person owning the fundamental part of your business. This is like me starting, I don’t know, a toy company and I don’t know anything about toys. I don’t know how to make toys. I don’t know how to design toys. I don’t know how to source or manufacture toys. I can start to learn it and I can ask people and I can hire people, but are they going to give me the best advice? 

Here’s the other thing. With SaaS, building software is like building a building a little bit, in that you get the foundation in and you start building rooms, and that (beep) is hard to change. Versus if I was starting a toy company, the advantage I would have is that if a manufacturer doesn’t work out, I could start over with a new one. It would be a restart, but switching cost is… It’s just the thing. With SaaS or with software, you have legacy code. You have code that nobody wants to spend the time to learn or fix, so they just want to rewrite it, or it doesn’t scale and everything’s buggy and every time we push a new thing, there’s bugs and that doesn’t go away. Right? That is really hard to fix once you’re in that spot. 

So I guess what I’m advising this question asker is, I mean, you kind of need enough resources in my opinion to find a co-founder who’d be willing to go in on it with you. And if you have a co-founder who is really up on the idea and you’re both willing to put time in nights and weekends, that’s one thing. But don’t send the co-founder off to build for six months nights and weekends while you don’t do anything. You should spend hour for hour. Whatever they are doing, you should be selling, marketing, learning the market, doing SEO, learning pay-per-click ads, doing outreach, building a launch list. I joke a little bit with the hour for hour, but that’s what it should be. 

Why should they go spend six months nights and then weekends while you’re waiting for the product to be done? Realistically, the best way to do this is to have funds. It’s to have the money to bring a co-founder level person on. Look, even if they only have 10 or 15 or 20% of the company and they’re called a founding engineer or they’re called a co-founder, with the expectation that they are in it to own the code base and to own the quality of that, but you have the funds to pay them a salary, to pay them what they’re worth, so to speak, that’s the way to get a sustainable relationship or to build a sustainable startup in these early days. 

The other way is to do it yourself, right? It’s to learn to code. That’s what so many of the folks who are bootstrapping, I say, on Twitter, in MicroConf for making it to TinySeed, so many of the folks do put in just sweat equity because they have that skill or they develop the skill or they do no code and they build stuff and scrap their way to making it work. But if you really do want a technical person and you’re not technical, that’s fine. It’s just know how you’re going to go about it because the bootstrap startups that I see crash and burn pretty hard. There’s a chunk of them that have this weird expectation that a developer who can bill $150 an hour consulting is going to work hundreds and hundreds of hours for free for you, for equity in something that is really unlikely to work. Right? 

Because most startups and even most bootstrap startups just don’t get to product market fit. So that’s a big risk that you’re putting on someone to basically say, “I want you to risk tens of thousands of dollars in in-person hours, in order to maybe build this thing that you might own 50% of.” So with all that said, I mean, if you’re looking for a developer, that’s what MicroConf is. It’s a community of developer entrepreneurs, and some of them are looking for marketing/sales co-founders, but you have to bring the thunder and you have to bring a skill set. And if you bring an idea and you know the market that you’re a subject matter expert, that’s not enough. Thanks for that question anonymous. I hope my thoughts were helpful. 

My last question of the day is from Jacob. The subject is SaaS app store spending. Jacob says, “I’m reading two of your books, Start Small, Stay Small and The SaaS Playbook.” Those are two good books to read, I think. Start Small, Stay Small, feels like it’s marketing for developers and it’s mindset stuff, and then some outdated advice on doing keyword research, but it really pushes market and marketing over product, which I think a lot of devs need to hear. And then The SaaS Playbook is much more modern take, all the knowledge that I have today about building, launching, and growing a bootstrap SaaS company. So thanks for reading those. Thanks for buying them. Jacob says, “One question comes to mind. Is there public information somewhere on revenue and spending on different app stores, as in which marketplace has users that are most likely to buy the non-free version?” 

As an example, it would be very useful when choosing to either make, for example, a Slack app or a Jira app. Good question, Jacob. The answer is no. There is no public data I know of. The only thing that you could potentially look at is if the company is public. I know that Shopify, for example, is public. I know that Atlassian who makes Jira is public. I know that Salesforce that owns Slack is public. So you can go to their public filings, S-1, I think is what it is, where they post revenue, where it comes from and all that stuff, and look for it. What I don’t know is if they break it out. Sometimes they just have an item that says other revenue and they bucket a bunch of stuff into it. There is certainly not going to be an easy Google-able Excel spreadsheet of all the app stores. 

We actually have a list of 71, I think, over on the MicroConf website, 70 or 71 of these app stores that I talk about. When you’re going to build a step one or a step two business, think about building it in an existing ecosystem, so that you don’t have to learn all the stuff at once. And then step three of course is building a standalone SaaS. But we have a list of those. I’m guessing, what? Five of them maybe are public. 10, 15? I mean, it’s not a huge number. I would go to their filings. Oh, another one is HubSpot. Right? HubSpot is public. Rackspace is public, and I think doesn’t Rackspace own Heroku? So you could look at the Heroku market space. 

Again, it’s going to be some research. There’s no magic formula. There’s no hrefs for organic search just like this cheat code, it’s a tool. There is no hrefs that I know of for this purpose, so I think you’re going to have to do some digging, and that’s okay because if you’re digging, it means other people aren’t and it means there may be a moat around the knowledge that you learn and establish. But no, there is no single source, easy source of the data that you’re looking for, but I do like the way that you’re thinking about it, so thanks for that question. I hope that was helpful. Thanks for joining me for this shotgun episode, a mix of text questions and solo adventure topics. Glad to be able to get it into your earbuds this week, coming to you from the sunny shores of San Diego, California. Thanks for joining me. This is Rob Walling, signing off from episode 714.